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Billionaire Psycho's avatar

Brilliant insights, as you already know.

I would make one slight point, about the inefficient and dysfunctional nature of geopolitics.

"The Amish can only survive as long as the (perceived) value of exploiting them is less than the (perceived) opportunity cost of doing so."

Plutarch writes that Lycurgus (mythical founder of the Spartan laws) designed Sparta to be poor, both to remain equal internally, and be undesirable to invade from external rivals.

Sparta was in some ways a Communist, monastic society where men took vows of poverty and devoted themselves religiously to military duty, and all gold and silver was confiscated by the government and made worthless.

"It need not be said, that, upon the prohibition of gold and silver, all lawsuits immediately ceased, for there was now neither avarice nor poverty amongst them, but equality, where every one's wants were supplied, and independence, because those wants were so small."

—Plutarch, Parallel Lives: Lycurgus

This sort of Communist monastic society required EXTREME discipline, fanatical indoctrination from childhood in order to be retained... it was an unstable equilibrium that later was destroyed by a scaling problem. Sparta only functioned when it was a small city-state. This government system was poorly adapted to be an empire.

Success ruined Sparta. Inflows of wealth "corrupted" Sparta (provided perverse incentives for defect-cooperate equilibrium)

Plutarch writes:

"In the time of Agis, gold and silver first flowed into Sparta, and with them all those mischiefs which attend the immoderate desire of riches. Lysander promoted this disorder; for, by bringing in rich spoils from the wars, although himself incorrupt, he yet by this means filled his country with avarice and luxury, and subverted the laws and ordinances of Lycurgus; so long as which were in force, the aspect presented by Sparta was rather that of a rule of life followed by one wise and temperate man, than of the political government of a nation."

Entropy is of course an inevitable force, but you are correct that strategic, religious, cultural retreat from technology offers short-term stability at the price of long-term defeat by someone willing to grasp Steel and build superior weapons.

In Dune, Frank Herbert writes about the downfall of the Navigator Guild — who chose to be parasitic mercenaries, intermediaries, and specialized in transportation so that their organization wouldn't be corrupted by DIRECT power and authority:

"he thought then about the Guild - the force that had specialized for so long that it had become a parasite, unable to exist independently of the life upon which it fed.

They had never dared grasp the sword . . . and now they could not grasp it.

They might have taken Arrakis when they realized the error of specializing on the melange awareness-spectrum narcotic for their navigators.

They could have done this, lived their glorious day and died.

Instead, they'd existed from moment to moment, hoping the seas in which they swam might produce a new host when the old one died.

The Guild navigators, gifted with limited prescience, had made the fatal decision: they'd chosen always the clear, safe course that leads ever downward into stagnation."

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Iridescent Iguana's avatar

About 30 years ago, when I was in my 20s -- this was the early 90s -- I had a dream that we (I and others) had magic flying mirrors that were the source of all kinds of interesting and useful information. It was understood that these mirrors were capable of betrayal, perhaps even that betrayal was a certain outcome. It seemed prophetic, so I remembered it.

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